Jakarta Post-Eid Inflation Eases, Remains Within Managed Target

In March 2026, Jakarta’s month-to-month (mtm) inflation moderated to 0.51 percent, down from February's 0.63 percent. Despite the slowdown, it remained slightly above the national average of 0.41 percent.

The impact of those discounts is now becoming more limited

While seasonal demand during Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr pushed prices up, stabilization efforts by central and local authorities effectively contained the inflationary surge.

Jakarta's annual inflation dropped to 3.37 percent (yoy) in March 2026, down from 4.91 percent in February and below the national average of 3.48 percent.

Jakarta's Central Statistics Agency Records Inflation at 0.63 Percent

Bank Indonesia's Jakarta Representative Office Head, Iwan Setiawan, attributed the decline to a diminishing base effect from early 2025 electricity tariff discounts.

"The impact of those discounts is now becoming more limited," he noted on Thursday (4/2).

Food, beverages, and tobacco continued to be the main inflation contributors at 1.46% (mtm), slowing down from the previous month's 2.23%. Higher prices for broiler chicken, rice, and red chili were triggered by surging demand and supply chain constraints during Eid.

Meanwhile, clothing and footwear inflation rose to 1.15% (mtm) from 0.30% in February, fueled by the rising costs of jeans and men's shorts in anticipation of the holiday.

Meanwhile, transportation inflation stood at 0.41 percent (mtm), rebounding from a 0.35 percent deflation. The rise was driven by non-subsidized fuel price hikes on March 1, 2026, and higher intercity travel costs due to increased mobility.

However, these price pressures were offset by incentives, including air and rail ticket discounts and toll fee breaks during the Eid travel season.

In the personal care and other services category, inflation stood at 0.56% (mtm), down sharply from the previous month’s 2.72%. Price hikes were mainly seen in perfume, shampoo, and skincare, while gold jewelry saw only modest increases due to weak global trends.

To manage costs during Ramadan and Eid, the Jakarta Regional Inflation Control Team (TPID) bolstered stabilization measures through subsidized markets, urban farming initiatives, and collaborations between regional food enterprises and producers.

Distribution efficiency is supported by mobile food trucks and Bank Indonesia’s logistical aid to widen the reach of subsidized markets. Additionally, regular TPID coordination and public outreach aim to stabilize inflation expectations.

Looking ahead, the city will bolster its inflation control through the '4K' approach: supply availability, price affordability, smooth distribution, and effective communication. These steps are vital to mitigate global risks, including Middle East geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, volatile commodity prices, and currency exchange rate pressures.

Domestic risks must also be anticipated, specifically a strong El Niño forecast for May through November 2026 that could trigger an extended drought in southern Indonesia.

"By bolstering synergy within the Jakarta TPID, we expect inflation to stay managed within the 2.5±1% target range for the duration of 2026," Iwan stated.